The Epilepsy Market Will Grow 2 Percent Annually Through 2022 with Expanding Uptake of Third-Generation Brands Older, Generic Mainstays Will Remain at the Core of Epilepsy Treatment, According to a New Report from Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the market for epilepsy pharmacotherapies will expand at a rate of 2 percent annually through 2022, peaking at more than $4.1 billion in 2020. Market growth will be fueled primarily by increasing uptake of premium-priced third-generation antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) such as UCB's Vimpat. Capturing approximately $800 million in 2021 sales across the major pharmaceutical markets under study (the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan), Vimpat will achieve the greatest clinical and commercial success in its class, capitalizing on a strong efficacy and safety profile that will drive its gradual incorporation into early lines of epilepsy treatment.
Nevertheless, the Pharmacor advisory service entitled Epilepsy finds that neurologists will continue to rely heavily on time-tested, generically available, first- and second-generation AEDs, notably levetiracetam (UCB/Otsuka's Keppra/E Keppra, generics; UCB's Keppra XR, generics) and lamotrigine (GlaxoSmithKline/Juste's Lamictal, other brands, generics; GlaxoSmithKline's Lamictal XR, generics). In contrast, the findings reveal that the uptake of newly marketed brands—Eisai's Fycompa, Sunovion Pharmaceuticals/Bial/Eisai's Zebinix/Aptiom—and emerging novel therapies—UCB's brivaracetam—will be slow as prescribers gradually adopt these newer therapies as late-line adjunctive therapy in treatment-refractory patients. Across the major markets, Decision Resources estimates that less than 15 percent of drug-treated epilepsy patients will receive a third-generation AED through 2022.
The report also finds that in addition to the modest expected uptake of brivaracetam—the only new chemical entity forecast to launch for epilepsy through 2022—emerging reformulations of established AEDs—topiramate extended-release from Supernus (Trokendi XR), Upsher-Smith Laboratories' USL-255 and Supernus's oxcarbazepine extended-release (Oxtellar XR)—will struggle to compete with the original, immediate-release formulations, which are widely prescribed and generically available. Ultimately, interviewed experts express doubts that any of these products will meaningfully address the most pressing unmet needs in the treatment of epilepsy.
"Numerous opportunities remain for drug development in epilepsy, including improved treatments for refractory patients and disease-modifying therapeutics that prevent or reverse the mechanisms underlying recurrent seizures," said Decision Resources Business Insights Analyst John Crowley, Ph.D. "Although early-stage translational research is yielding promising new approaches to epilepsy treatment, as was showcased this month at the American Epilepsy Society Annual Meeting, the near-term clinical and commercial impact of these efforts will be minimal."
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SOURCE Decision Resources