The Launch of Five Immunomodulatory Therapies for Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis Will Contribute to 4 Percent Annual Growth of the Total Market from 2013 to 2023 Biogen Idec's Tecfidera is Forecast to Overtake Teva's Copaxone Franchise as the U.S. Market Leader by 2015, According to Findings from Decision Resources Group
BURLINGTON, Mass., Aug. 7, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the forecast launch of Biogen Idec's Plegridy, Roche/Genentech's ocrelizumab, Biogen Idec/AbbVie's daclizumab, Teva/Active Biotech's Nerventra and Receptos' RPC-1063, coupled with the expected U.S. approval of Genzyme/Sanofi/Bayer HealthCare's Lemtrada, will help drive total sales across the multiple sclerosis (MS) market in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan to over $20 billion in 2023, reflecting 4 percent annual growth from 2013. Of note, future generics and projected biosimilar competition will cause major-market sales to contract in the latter part of our study period from a 2018 peak of over $22 billion.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Multiple Sclerosis:
- U.S. market dominance of Tecfidera: With greater cross-trial efficacy on relapses than injectable agents, few serious safety risks or monitoring requirements and acceptable tolerability, Tecfidera has experienced robust uptake in the United States. The drug is forecast to become the U.S. market leader by 2015, supported by gradually declining reliance on the platform injectable therapies.
- Success for follow-on injectables: Despite physicians' and patients' enthusiasm for oral disease-modifying therapies, injectable products remain important current treatment options and comprise a meaningful element of the MS pipeline. We forecast that both Plegridy and Teva's Copaxone 40 mg three-times weekly, two follow-on products offering improved dosing characteristics over time-tested clinical mainstays, will help sustain these companies' respective franchises and earn blockbuster sales during the forecast period.
- Ocrelizumab's clinical and commercial promise: Interviewed experts express positive opinions about ocrelizumab's potential for strong efficacy in MS as well as its relatively favorable delivery profile. Interviewed thought leaders are quick to note that the drug's safety must be established in ongoing Phase III studies, but they are cautiously optimistic that ocrelizumab may become a preferred agent in later-line MS treatment.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst John Crowley, Ph.D.:
- "Continued clinical success with anti-inflammatory compounds accentuates the unmet need for bona fide neuroprotective or regenerative therapies for MS. Such an agent could be initiated early in the disease process and/or in combination with immunological agents to benefit the entire spectrum of MS patients. Development in this arena is active—notably with Biogen Idec's Phase II candidate BIIB-033—but advancement overall is constrained by the difficulty of identifying valid drug targets and the optimal design for clinical trials."
- "Interviewed experts routinely note the pressing unmet need for effective therapies to treat progressive forms of MS. Although experts generally report low expectations for ongoing clinical trials assessing drugs like Tysabri, Gilenya and ocrelizumab, the commercial potential for a successful agent is sizable—we expect a drug's approval for secondary- or primary-progressive MS could result in sales exceeding $1 billion in that population alone."
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