The Rising Prevalence of Diabetes and its Confounding Complications

Dec 22, 2015, 08:30 ET from Decision Resources Group

BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the prevalent type 2 diabetes (T2D) population in the G7 (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan) is increasing. This increase, from 71.8 million adults to 88.6 million from 2014 to 2024, is driven by rising obesity levels and an aging population across all markets (PatientBase®: T2D 2015). Rising levels of T2D is a major economic concern, given the high rates of morbidity and mortality, and the cost of its associated comorbidities, such as renal disease. An estimated 47 percent of the T2D population has impaired renal function (defined as eGFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m2), and although the percentage of patients with impaired renal function is expected to stay relatively constant over the next several years, the prevalence will increase in line with the overall T2D population. T2D patients with renal disease, called diabetic nephropathy (DN), are currently prescribed angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). However, these treatments cannot reverse DN progression. According to primary research, DN is considered the renal disease with the greatest unmet need for new therapeutic options (TreatmentTrends®: Diabetic Nephropathy (US) 2015).

Insights from Decision Resources Group's T2D and DN research: 

  • Growth of DN: In the US in 2015, nearly 7 million people have DN. According to findings from PatientBase®: Diabetic Nephropathy 2015, the prevalence of DN is expected to increase by nearly 50 percent over the next 20 years. Primary research reveals that 46 percent of patients seen monthly by surveyed nephrologists have DN. This is greater than what is reported by surveyed endocrinologists (26 percent) and primary care physicians (17 percent), according to TreatmentTrends®: Diabetic Nephropathy (US) 2015 report.
  • Treatment utilization in DN varies depending on physician type: In treating DN, surveyed endocrinologists and primary care physicians report a significantly higher percentage of patients on ACE inhibitors compared with surveyed nephrologists. Conversely, nephrologists report higher use of ARBs. Of the DN patients on an ACE inhibitor, lisinopril (Merck's Prinivil, AstraZeneca's Zestril, generics) dominates with nearly 40 percent patient share, while those treated with an ARB are predominately on losartan (Merck's Cozaar, generics) (34 percent). Despite these differences, the majority of surveyed physicians agree that disease-modifying treatment is sorely needed (TreatmentTrends®: Diabetic Nephropathy (US) 2015).
  • Rapid growth is expected in the market size for both T2D and DN: In T2D, the market is expected to reach over $71 billion (Pharmacor®: Type 2 Diabetes (2015)), while the DN market will reach peak sales in excess of $1 billion during the 2014-2024 forecast period (Pharmacor®: Chronic Kidney Disease (2015)). In diabetes, the SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists are expected to become the highest grossing drug classes in the treatment of T2D by 2024, with sales of approximately $15 billion for each class. In DN, novel therapies such as AbbVie's atrasentan, NephroGenex's Pyridorin, and Bayer's finerenone, among others, are poised to meaningfully impact treatment decisions due to their potential to modify the disease and halt its progression. AbbVie's atrasentan is expected to reach the market first followed closely by Bayer's finerenerone.

Comment from Decision Resources Group Analyst Caitlin Koris, MSPH:

  • "The pipeline for DN has been rapidly growing. There are four agents in late-stage development, all with unique mechanisms of action and enrolling in Phase III clinical programs. There are several more agents in the early-stage development pipeline. While there have been noticeable failures in the past, interviewed nephrologists are excited about the first potential disease-modifying agent. Assuming regulatory approvals, surveyed physicians have indicated high patient share for these agents among their CKD-ND and dialysis patient populations."

Comment from Decision Resources Group Analyst Eamonn O'Connor, Ph.D.:

  • "The rising prevalence of T2D, and consequently DN, will impose increasing strain on healthcare budgets globally. However, ongoing clinical trials investigating the potential nephroprotective effects of the SGLT-2 inhibitor drug class may result in this drug class representing the first therapeutic opportunity to slow the deterioration of renal function, and progression of DN, in T2D patients."

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About Decision Resources Group
Decision Resources Group offers best-in-class, high-value data, analytics and insights products and services to the healthcare industry, delivered by more than 900 employees across 14 global locations. DRG provides the pharmaceutical, biotech, medical device, financial services and payer industries with the tools, insights and advice they need to compete and thrive in an increasingly complex and value-based marketplace. DecisionResourcesGroup.com.

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SOURCE Decision Resources Group



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