Trade Economists Predict Worst is Over, 2011 Trans-Pacific Volumes Will Hit Pre-recession Peak

NEWARK, N.J., Dec. 20, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- Experts forecast U.S. containerized ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade to return to pre-recession levels in 2011 as supply chain managers move from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand, The Journal of Commerce reports.

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Forecast numbers from PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, predict U.S. container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 percent next year to 13.4 million 20-foot equivalent units – nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6 million TEUs. Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 percent to 6.4 million TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 percent increase in U.S. trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 percent increase in exports in 2010, according to PIERS.

"Our forecast is positive but moderate," said Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce. "We look for growth in containerized imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks."

Despite stubbornly high unemployment rates, the National Retail Federation reports the 2010 holiday season has surpassed all expectations, with retail sales also on track to reach 2007 peak levels by mid-year. This week's Cover Story, written by Senior Editor Joseph Bonney, examines the sustainability of this new outlook for the U.S. ocean shipping trade and analyzes the data behind predictions for consumer confidence, the housing market, currency fluctuation and the impact of recent federal monetary policies.

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Since 1827, The Journal of Commerce has been the most trusted source of intelligence for international logistics executives to help them plan global supply chains and better manage day-to-day transportation of goods and commodities in the United States and internationally.

To become a member of The Journal of Commerce click here. JOC members have access to our weekly print and digital magazine and Web site, as well as a 10% discount on all JOC events and trade shows, UBM Global Trade Directories and select PIERS products. Authoritative editorial content in the form of daily news, weekly analysis and regular features ensure our members have the information and data necessary to understand the issues facing trucking, rail and maritime transportation. Members enjoy access to "By the Numbers," an exclusive weekly compilation of key industry statistics that provides detailed views of current market trends across all modes. Regular market intelligence reports -- utilizing PIERS trade data -- include Top 100 Imports and Exporters, quarterly Top 40 Container lines, Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic Maritime Forecasts and Top Container Ports and Terminals. Market-sector supplements, including Breakbulk, Cool Cargoes, 3PL, JOC Guide to Trucking and others, ensure all modes are comprehensively covered.  

About UBM Global Trade - UBM Global Trade is the leading provider of proprietary data, news, business intelligence and analytical content supporting commercial maritime, rail, trucking, warehousing and logistics industries worldwide. The company's portfolio of more than 100 online, print and interactive workflow business solutions includes The Journal of Commerce, Breakbulk, RailResource, PIERS Global Intelligence Solutions and an array of international trade and transportation databases and directories. UBM Global Trade, a subsidiary of United Business Media Limited, is headquartered in Newark, NJ, with offices throughout the United States. For more information, explore www.ubmglobaltrade.com or call 800-952-3839 (+1-973-776-8660 outside the U.S. or Canada).

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Joe Bonney

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Paul Page

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SOURCE The Journal of Commerce