TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Added 280,000 Jobs in March
Wages and Salaries Rose 3.9% Year-over-Year, Biggest Increase in Two Years
SAUSALITO, Calif., March 31 /PRNewswire/ -- TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in March, the first employment increase since December 2007.
"Job growth in March was a lot stronger than the consensus estimate of 200,000," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "While the Census Bureau's hiring of temporary workers was responsible for most of the employment growth, the private sector finally started adding employees."
TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. TrimTabs estimates that the Census Bureau hired between 150,000 and 200,000 workers in March, while the private sector added between 80,000 and 130,000 jobs.
TrimTabs also noted that wages and salaries rose 3.9% year-over-year in March, the biggest increase in two years. TrimTabs' proprietary online job postings index is up 23% this year, indicating that hiring demand is accelerating.
"Zero percent dictated interest rates and trillions of dollars in deficit spending are fueling an economic recovery," said Biderman. "Consumption is also getting a short-term boost from rising mortgage delinquencies. Instead of paying their mortgages, delinquent borrowers are spending money on other things."
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that the key risk to the economic recovery is higher interest rates. Last week's 5-year and 7-year Treasury auctions were ugly, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked to the highest level since June 2009.
"We're bullish on U.S. equities, but the economy is heavily dependent on the government's ability to borrow huge sums at low yields," said Biderman. "If and when investors choke on all the debt the government is selling, all economic recovery bets are off."
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.
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