TrueCar.com Forecasts New and Used Auto Sales; Incentives Spending for May 2011
Hyundai/Kia Has Third Largest Market Share Among Automakers; Average Incentive Spend Lowest Since November 2002
SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 25, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its May 2011 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For May 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,060,392 units, down 3.7 percent from May 2010 and down 8.3 percent from April 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The May 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.85 million new car sales, down from 13.18 million in April 2011 and up from 11.63 million in May 2010
- Retail sales are down 10.7 percent compared to April 2011 and down 3.1 percent from May 2010
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 23 percent of total industry sales in May 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,017 in May 2011, which represents a drop of 13.1 percent from April 2011 and down 28.9 percent from May 2010
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,814,291, up 3.4 percent from April 2011 and down 8.9 percent from May 2010. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for May 2011
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"Inventory constraints finally hit the Japanese automakers this month but the recovery in supply appears quicker than first anticipated," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. "Current inventory shortages and perceived inventory shortages led to the lowest incentive spending in nearly nine years and the lowest SAAR of the year. This is a sizeable speed bump on the road to recovery."
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for May 2011:
Unit Sales Forecast | ||||
Manufacturer | May 2011 Forecast | % Change vs. April 2011 | % Change vs. May 2010 | |
Chrysler | 110,132 | -5.3% | 5.1% | |
Ford | 188,280 | -0.5% | -1.9% | |
GM | 225,394 | -3.1% | 1.5% | |
Honda | 92,889 | -25.6% | -20.7% | |
Hyundai/Kia | 115,434 | 6.1% | 43.4% | |
Nissan | 66,371 | -7.2% | -20.8% | |
Toyota | 109,416 | -31.4% | -32.8% | |
Industry | 1,060,392 | -8.3% | -3.7% | |
Market Share Forecast | ||||
Manufacturer | May 2011 Forecast | April 2011 | May 2010 | |
Chrysler | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | |
Ford | 17.8% | 16.4% | 17.4% | |
GM | 21.3% | 20.1% | 20.2% | |
Honda | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.6% | |
Hyundai/Kia | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | |
Nissan | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | |
Toyota | 10.3% | 13.8% | 14.8% | |
Incentive Spending Forecast | |||||
Manufacturer | May 2011 Incentives | Change vs. April 2011 | Change vs. May 2010 | Total Spending | |
Chrysler | $2,706 | -3.6% | -26.2% | $297,984,986 | |
Ford | $2,340 | -2.5% | -23.4% | $440,546,071 | |
GM | $2,714 | -11.5% | -27.2% | $611,767,554 | |
Honda | $1,229 | -43.4% | -42.3% | $114,152,250 | |
Hyundai/Kia | $1,186 | -7.3% | -42.7% | $136,857,810 | |
Nissan | $1,840 | -7.9% | -41.1% | $122,133,180 | |
Toyota | $877 | -53.3% | -54.4% | $96,000,732 | |
Industry | $2,017 | -13.1% | -28.9% | $2,139,004,752 | |
"High gas prices affected large truck sales dramatically hurting GM and Ford but because of their better balanced product portfolio, due to their new fuel-efficient models, they were able to weather the storm with no major damage," continued Toprak.
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. As a transparent, visual publisher of new car transaction data, TrueCar.com price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid for the identically equipped new car over the last 30 days both locally and nationally.
TrueCar, Inc. works with a national network of nearly 5,000 Certified Dealers that provide up-front, no-haggle, competitive pricing to assist some of the nation's largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. These partnerships include American Express, AAA, USAA and more than 60 others. Collectively these audiences represent over 1M in-market customers each month.
TrueCar, Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco. The company was founded in 2005 and has been profitable since 2009. With nearly 200 percent year-over-year growth TrueCar has driven over 270,000 sales and is developing a suite of transaction oriented products and services centered on transparency and radical clarity as a result of comprehensively analyzing market data and information. You can follow TrueCar on Twitter and become a fan of TrueCar on Facebook.
About TrueCar Data
TrueCar obtains data directly from numerous sources including automotive dealers, technology companies, data aggregators, and analytics companies within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more. TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem. Our data is among the most timely and comprehensive in the industry, as we are able to process most car sales within a week of the actual sales date, and have a substantial fraction on the site within 48 hours of the actual sale. TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
Disclaimer
This press release and the information contained herein is for noncommercial use on "as-is, as available" basis and may be used for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this press release and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement. The information contained in this press release may include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates or respective partners, officers, or directors, employees or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this press release.
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Jesse Toprak
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SOURCE TrueCar.com
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