Two-Thirds of Americans in the Swing States Give President Obama Negative Ratings

NEW YORK, Dec. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- One thing the infighting among Republicans may be doing is strengthening President Obama's job approval ratings.  While still low, this is the fourth month in a row that the positive numbers have inched upwards. This month just over one-third of Americans (36%) give the President positive ratings for the overall job he is doing and slightly less than two-thirds (64%) give him negative marks. This is up from last month's numbers of 34% positive and 66% negative. Looking at the possible swing states for the general election (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia), two-thirds of Americans in these nine states (66%) give the President negative ratings while one-third (34%) give him positive marks.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,237 adults surveyed online between December 5 and 12, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Not surprisingly, just 7% of Republicans and 12% of Conservatives give President Obama positive ratings. Among Independents, two-thirds (66%) give him negative ratings as do 60% of Moderates. Among the President's party, while two-thirds of Democrats (65%) give President Obama positive ratings, one-third (35%) give him negative ratings. Liberals feel the same way with 64% giving the President positive marks and 36% giving him negative ratings.

Congress and Direction of the Country

Congress, however, is not feeling any warm feelings as just 5% of Americans give them positive ratings for the job they are doing while 95% give them negative marks. This is unchanged for the past two months and consistent among parties; almost all Republicans (96%), Democrats (94%) and Independents (97%) give Congress negative ratings.

Maybe it's the holiday spirit, but there is also an uptick in how people think things are going in the country. This month, one-quarter of U.S. adults (24%) say things are going in the right direction while three-quarters (76%) say things are going off on the wrong track. Last month, one in five Americans (20%) said things in the country were going in the right direction while four in five (80%) said things were going off on the wrong track.

President Obama's re-election chances

One thing the holiday season means this year is that the presidential election is less than 11 months away.  And if the election for president were to be held today, over half of Americans (51%) would be unlikely to vote to re-elect President Obama, two in five (42%) would be likely to vote for him and 7% are not at all sure. This is slightly better than last month when 53% said they would be unlikely to vote to re-elect the President and 40% said they would be likely to do so. Looking at this by party, nine in ten Republicans (89%) and over half of Independents (54%) would be unlikely to vote for him as would 19% of Democrats.  Also, in the likely 2012 swing states, 52% say they would be unlikely to vote for the President while 40% say they would be likely to vote for him.

When it comes to what Americans think will happen next November, just over one-third (35%) think President Obama will be re-elected while 44% think he will not be re-elected; one in five (20%) are not at all sure. Last month, 46% did not think he would be re-elected while one-third (32%) thought he would be re-elected.

So What?

At this point, with Iowa and New Hampshire just a few weeks away, much of the focus will be on the Republicans as they fight for the nomination. This gives President Obama a chance to quietly shore up support and wait to see who his challenger will be. If the Republican nomination fight drags on for months, this could help the President come the fall.  Congress, on the other hand, continues to have almost no job approval and as yet another threat of a government shutdown looms, are likely to take the blame for much that is perceived wrong by voters. Whether that carries over into November remains to be seen.

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between December 5 and 12, 2011 among 2,237 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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The Harris Poll^® #130, December 15, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American and European offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive