NEW YORK, Oct. 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The US economy will continue to strengthen in 2014, due to sustained improvement in the labour market that will fuel an acceleration in private consumption. We will continue to see positive - although slowing - fixed investment growth this year, and we believe the drag on growth from government expenditure will lessen compared to last year. However, we have revised down our 2014 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1% due to a particularly weak Q114. Indeed, real GDP contracted at a seasonally-adjusted, annualised rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of the year, the largest contraction during a period of economic growth in decades. That said, the downward revision is attributable to base effects from Q1 and does not suggest the start of a major slowdown. We believe many of the contributing factors have already begun to recede, suggesting a much stronger second quarter.
Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +4.1%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.7%; CAGR to 2018 = +3.5%.
- 2014 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; CAGR to 2018 = +1.9%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; CAGR to 2018 = +2.5%.
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