U.S. Crude Oil Production to Rise 74% by 2022: Latest Bentek Energy Forecast

"Not only will the projected record growth in oil production affect North America, it will have dramatic implications for global crude oil markets," said Jodi Quinnell, Bentek oil analysis manager. "We foresee a massive displacement of traditional waterborne oil imports to the United States by 2022, taking them from 45% of U.S. total crude supply to no more than five percent."

In the North American Perspective section of its Crude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil (http://www.bentekenergy.com/CrudeAwakening.aspx#2012) special report, a series of regional and global long-term forecasts and analysis, Bentek says U.S. waterborne imports will likely plummet to less than one MMb/d by 2022, compared to 6.7 MMb/d in 2011.

The section features Bentek's latest 10-year crude oil supply and demand forecasts for the U.S. and Canada, including projections for regional production, overseas imports, regional flows and refining demand. There is also an examination of crude oil transportation constraints. 

"As could be expected with such a forecast, we also see North American crude oil prices declining versus their global counterparts," said Quinnell.  

Bentek analysts say the projected rise in U.S. petroleum production – largely driven by shale oil activity of the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays in mid-western U.S. and parts of Canada – will be accompanied by lower U.S. and Canadian oil prices relative to international oil benchmarks.

For example, as sweeter, lighter sulfur crude oils compete for market share in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Louisiana Light Sweet crude oil is seen disconnecting from those of Brent crude, found near the North Sea, off Europe and Britain.  West Texas Intermediate crude is pegged for a price decline of up to $16 per barrel by the end of 2017. TheCrude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil is comprised of six individual forecast and analysis sections:

• Part 1 - PADD 4 (including the Rocky Mountains)
• Part 2 - PADD 2 (including North Dakota's Williston Basin)
• Part 3 - Canada (including the Alberta oil sands)
• Part 4 - PADD 3 (including the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shale play)
• Part 5 - PADDs 1 & 5 (including the U.S. East and West coast markets)
• Part 6 - North American Perspective

For more information on each of the six sections and the full Crude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil special forecast report, access this link.  Bentek Energy, based in Evergreen, Colorado and acquired by Platts in 2011, provides analytical tools and forecasts for natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and power markets.

For more information on Platts and crude oil, visit the website www.platts.com.  For more information on natural gas analytics and Bentek Energy visit www.bentekenergy.com.

About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals and metals information and a premier source of benchmark prices for the physical and futures markets.  Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency.  Customers in more than 150 countries benefit from Platts' coverage of the carbon emissions, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, metals, nuclear power, petrochemical, and shipping markets.  A division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), Platts is headquartered in New York with approximately 900 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. Bentek Energy, a leader in natural gas market fundamentals analysis, is a unit of Platts. Additional information is available at www.platts.com and for more information on Bentek Energy visit www.bentekenergy.com.

About The McGraw-Hill Companies: McGraw-Hill announced on September 12, 2011, its intention to separate into two companies: McGraw-Hill Financial, a leading provider of content and analytics to global financial markets, and McGraw-Hill Education, a leading education company focused on digital learning and education services worldwide. McGraw-Hill Financial's leading brands include Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts energy information services and J.D. Power and Associates. With sales of $6.2 billion in 2011, the Corporation has approximately 23,000 employees across more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Additional information is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com/.

CONTACT
Kathleen Tanzy
212-904-2860
[email protected]

Additional media contacts: Bentek's Katie Lowe at 720-214-3809 or [email protected]

SOURCE Platts