U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI™ and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI™ and Diffusion Indexes

TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 28, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2013 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2013, and the January 2013 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2013.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2013).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2009 through 2012, as well as the 2013 projected seasonal factors. The 2013 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2014. Projected seasonal factors for 2013 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.

 

2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

 









New Orders

Production

Employment

Supplier Deliveries







Jan

2013

1.003

0.988

0.972

0.980

Feb

2013

1.046

1.051

1.017

0.992

Mar

2013

1.108

1.120

0.996

1.053

Apr

2013

1.090

1.112

1.085

1.031

May

2013

1.087

1.122

1.038

1.036

Jun

2013

1.051

1.040

1.057

1.020

Jul

2013

0.918

0.885

1.002

1.027

Aug

2013

0.933

0.962

1.003

1.003

Sep

2013

0.967

0.919

0.956

1.007

Oct

2013

0.924

0.938

0.987

0.960

Nov

2013

0.927

0.947

0.938

0.949

Dec

2013

0.935

0.901

0.931

0.942

To compute the PMI:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place). Note: As of January 2012, the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted.

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

 

 

2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes

 









Business Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices







Jan

2013

0.939

0.983

0.905

1.017

Feb

2013

1.001

1.013

0.988

1.013

Mar

2013

1.088

1.089

1.032

1.074

Apr

2013

1.073

1.065

1.086

1.093

May

2013

1.044

1.054

1.087

1.067

Jun

2013

1.047

1.012

1.080

0.986

Jul

2013

0.969

0.945

1.052

0.949

Aug

2013

0.941

0.934

0.965

0.973

Sep

2013

0.999

0.981

0.949

0.962

Oct

2013

0.955

0.950

0.925

0.971

Nov

2013

0.964

0.993

0.953

0.949

Dec

2013

0.979

0.981

0.977

0.944

To compute the NMI:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

    

 Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012

 










PMI

New Orders

Production

Employment

Supplier Deliveries








Jan

2009

34.9

31.8

30.3

28.8

45.5

Feb

2009

35.5

32.8

35.3

25.5

46.0

Mar

2009

36.0

40.3

36.3

28.6

41.9

Apr

2009

39.5

46.5

39.0

33.2

44.4

May

2009

41.7

49.0

42.7

34.8

49.2

Jun

2009

45.8

51.7

55.4

40.7

50.4

Jul

2009

49.9

57.6

59.9

47.1

52.2

Aug

2009

53.5

66.6

62.4

46.1

56.5

Sep

2009

54.4

63.3

61.2

47.8

58.4

Oct

2009

56.0

59.9

63.0

52.4

58.4

Nov

2009

54.4

60.6

62.7

51.7

57.5

Dec

2009

55.3

63.0

62.3

51.6

58.3








Jan

2010

56.6

60.4

62.9

54.4

59.5

Feb

2010

55.7

57.4

57.2

55.0

60.0

Mar

2010

59.3

62.6

61.9

55.1

60.6

Apr

2010

58.9

65.1

62.7

57.0

59.0

May

2010

57.8

63.9

62.6

56.8

59.8

Jun

2010

56.1

59.5

62.0

55.9

57.3

Jul

2010

56.4

56.1

58.9

58.8

59.2

Aug

2010

57.8

56.1

61.3

61.2

57.3

Sep

2010

56.5

54.1

61.1

57.2

54.1

Oct

2010

57.3

58.2

62.1

59.8

53.3

Nov

2010

58.2

58.3

59.4

60.0

59.4

Dec

2010

57.3

58.8

61.5

59.0

57.4








Jan

2011

59.2

63.2

63.1

59.6

58.1

Feb

2011

59.6

62.7

63.9

61.9

59.2

Mar

2011

59.3

62.7

63.9

61.5

59.5

Apr

2011

59.4

63.8

59.5

60.2

59.2

May

2011

53.5

52.4

53.1

58.6

55.0

Jun

2011

55.8

54.1

56.7

59.0

55.9

Jul

2011

52.3

51.3

54.2

56.6

51.5

Aug

2011

53.2

52.9

53.0

53.4

52.0

Sep

2011

53.2

51.6

54.4

56.1

51.9

Oct

2011

51.5

52.2

53.0

53.2

52.4

Nov

2011

52.3

54.8

55.8

53.2

51.1

Dec

2011

52.9

55.1

58.9

54.6

50.6








Jan

2012

53.7

56.5

54.9

55.3

52.2

Feb

2012

51.9

54.9

54.8

52.1

48.4

Mar

2012

53.3

56.8

55.9

55.6

48.0

Apr

2012

54.1

57.6

59.0

56.8

48.7

May

2012

52.5

57.2

54.1

55.9

49.2

Jun

2012

50.2

49.6

52.4

55.7

49.5

Jul

2012

50.5

47.5

53.3

53.2

49.7

Aug

2012

50.7

48.9

48.9

52.6

50.2

Sep

2012

51.6

51.7

51.4

53.7

50.5

Oct

2012

51.7

52.8

53.3

52.3

49.9

Nov

2012

49.9

51.1

53.1

50.1

50.1

Dec

2012

50.2

49.7

52.6

51.9

53.7








*The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 42.2 percent. A PMI over 42.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 42.2 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.

 

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012

 










NMI

Business Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices








Jan

2009

43.1

44.1

40.7

36.2

41.6

Feb

2009

41.5

40.6

40.4

37.0

47.6

Mar

2009

40.0

42.8

37.2

31.9

38.7

Apr

2009

43.4

45.0

46.8

36.3

40.3

May

2009

44.2

43.1

45.9

37.9

47.5

Jun

2009

46.8

50.1

49.6

41.5

54.5

Jul

2009

47.0

47.0

49.7

41.3

42.7

Aug

2009

49.1

52.1

51.7

43.4

61.6

Sep

2009

50.5

53.8

53.3

44.7

49.1

Oct

2009

50.9

55.0

55.4

42.6

52.7

Nov

2009

49.3

50.9

54.9

42.8

58.1

Dec

2009

49.9

53.0

51.6

44.6

58.5








Jan

2010

50.2

51.8

52.7

45.8

59.7

Feb

2010

51.7

53.0

53.1

47.1

58.2

Mar

2010

53.2

57.3

57.9

47.9

59.2

Apr

2010

54.8

59.4

57.7

48.6

64.1

May

2010

55.3

61.0

57.8

49.3

60.6

Jun

2010

54.5

59.7

56.3

48.8

58.2

Jul

2010

54.7

57.5

58.5

50.8

57.8

Aug

2010

52.8

56.1

55.0

49.1

60.0

Sep

2010

53.7

53.3

55.3

51.1

59.1

Oct

2010

55.4

60.1

58.4

52.0

67.1

Nov

2010

56.1

58.6

58.8

54.6

64.5

Dec

2010

57.1

62.9

62.0

52.0

68.7








Jan

2011

57.7

61.7

61.9

53.5

70.8

Feb

2011

58.1

63.5

61.7

55.2

71.0

Mar

2011

55.4

58.0

58.9

53.3

69.5

Apr

2011

54.5

56.4

55.7

52.9

71.0

May

2011

54.7

54.7

56.0

54.1

69.1

Jun

2011

53.8

55.1

54.9

53.1

64.0

Jul

2011

53.7

57.0

54.0

53.2

62.8

Aug

2011

54.4

57.1

55.2

52.3

62.0

Sep

2011

52.8

56.6

56.2

48.7

60.8

Oct

2011

53.1

54.3

53.7

52.3

56.8

Nov

2011

52.8

56.0

54.0

51.1

62.2

Dec

2011

52.7

56.3

53.9

49.1

61.4








Jan

2012

56.0

58.7

57.8

56.5

62.3

Feb

2012

56.1

60.3

59.6

54.9

67.9

Mar

2012

55.0

58.4

56.6

55.4

64.3

Apr

2012

53.7

55.2

54.2

53.9

55.9

May

2012

54.1

56.0

55.6

51.8

51.4

Jun

2012

52.7

52.4

54.7

52.7

51.0

Jul

2012

52.9

56.9

55.4

49.9

57.2

Aug

2012

54.3

56.3

55.6

53.9

62.3

Sep

2012

55.2

59.6

57.8

52.0

66.1

Oct

2012

54.8

56.8

56.1

54.8

60.8

Nov

2012

54.8

60.9

58.0

51.4

56.9

Dec

2012

55.7

60.8

58.3

55.3

56.1

Beginning in January 2008, ISM began calculating a composite index for the Non-Manufacturing sector (NMI).

The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the first supply institute in the world. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence, influence building and information dissemination — including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® — ISM continues to extend the global impact of supply management. ISM's membership base includes more than 40,000 supply management professionals in more than 80 countries. Supply management professionals are responsible for trillions of dollars in the purchases of products and services annually. ISM is a member of the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM).

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121101/LA02871LOGO)

Contact:

Rose Marie Goupil


ISM, ROB Media Relations


Tempe, Arizona


(800) 888-6276, ext. 3015


rgoupil@ism.ws

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management




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