NEW YORK, Oct. 28, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- With only a week to go until the midterm election, Americans continue to show consistently low opinions of Congress. Last month 7% of Americans gave Congress positive ratings and this month 8% do so, while 92% of Americans give them negative marks on the overall job they are doing.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,205 U.S. adults surveyed online between October 15 and 20, 2014. (Full results, including data tables, are available here)
Young vs. old, conservative vs. liberal, Americans may disagree on a great many things; disdain for Congress, however, continues to be universal.
- Though Millennials are less inclined than their elders to give Congress negative ratings for the job they're doing, overwhelming majorities of every generation rate Congress negatively (87% Millennials, 93% Gen Xers, 94% Baby Boomers, 98% Matures).
- What's more, at least nine in ten Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing across the range of political ideologies (91% Conservatives, 93% Moderates, 90% Liberals).
Things improve, as they tend to do, when Americans are asked to rate the job their own member of the House of Representatives is doing, though it's worth noting that negative ratings nonetheless outpace positive ones by nearly a 3:1 margin. 23% of Americans give a positive rating for the overall job their member of the House of Representatives is doing, while 65% give a negative rating. Positive ratings are up from last month, when this rating reached a low point of 18%.
- Here generational attitudes are more dispersed, with Gen Xers least likely to rate their member of the House of Representatives positively and Matures most likely to do the same (22% Millennials, 15% Gen Xers, 24% Baby Boomers, 34% Matures).
- Independents are again the least enthused, with only 13% rating their Representative positively, compared to 20% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans.
Tea Party Prospects
Much of the political play-by-play earlier this year was focused on a number of GOP primaries pitting Tea Party candidates against more moderate Republicans. Some similar storylines unfolded in the leadup to the 2010 midterm elections, but how do attitudes toward the Tea Party compare to where they were then? Just under a third of Americans (32%) say they support the Tea Party, while 40% say they oppose it.
Tea Party support shows some degradation from just before the 2010 midterms, when 38% supported the Tea Party and 32% opposed it. The lion's share of this drop in support has come from the Republican (with support dropping from 70% in 2010 to 60% in 2014) and Independent (from 44% to 34%) camps.
When looking at hypothetical matchups between a Democratic candidate running for office in respondents' district against two different types of Republican opponents, moderate Republicans appear to fare better than Republicans backed by the Tea Party:
- In a hypothetical election between a Democrat and a Moderate Republican, the Democrat has a slight edge with 41% saying they'd choose this candidate, 39% saying they'd vote for the moderate Republican and 20% not sure. Among those absolutely certain they will vote in the election, the Democrat and the moderate Republican are tied at 43% each.
- The hypothetical matchup between a Democrat and a Tea Party supported Republican is a different story altogether, with 47% saying they would choose the Democrat, 26% saying they would support the Tea Party supported Republican, and 27% unsure. The gap narrows when looking at those absolutely certain they will vote, with 46% saying they would vote for the Democrat and 35% saying they would vote for the Tea Party supported Republican.
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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between October 15 and 20, 2014 among 2,205 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.
The Harris Poll® #98, October 28, 2014
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Director, The Harris Poll
About The Harris Poll®
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.
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SOURCE The Harris Poll
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