Wall Street Names Janet Yellen "Person of the Year" and Issues Bullish Forecast for 2015

NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Convergex, an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider, has released the results of its 2015 Forecasts Survey, quantifying financial industry expectations for 2015 and identifying Wall Street's Person of the Year for 2014. The survey was conducted from December 9 to December 12, 2014. 

With less than one year in office, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, received the most votes as the person who, for better or worse, had the greatest impact on global capital markets in 2014. Thirty-one percent (31%) of respondents named Yellen "Person of the Year", followed closely by Russian president Vladimir Putin (24%). Flash Boys author Michael Lewis and IEX President and CEO Brad Katsuyama (11%), offered as a combined choice, finished third. Alibaba founder Jack Ma finished in fourth place with eight percent (8%) after bringing to market the largest IPO in history.

"The battle of policy versus geopolitics was decided on points," said Nicholas Colas, Convergex chief market strategist. "In an earlier survey*, we found investors' biggest concern for the markets was the potential for a mistake by the Federal Reserve. For avoiding such a misstep, our respondents awarded Janet Yellen the title of the single most influential person on the Street this year."

Respondents expect the Federal Reserve to act sooner rather than later in 2015, with a majority (54%) predicting a rate raise announcement at or before the FOMC's mid-June meeting.

In equities, more than 4 out of 5 respondents (83%) expect a positive return from the S&P 500 Index over the course of the new year, with almost one-third (32%) predicting growth of 8% or more from the 2014 close. More than three-quarters (77%) expect more volatility or much more volatility from the placid levels of 2014.

Investors see petroleum prices rebounding in 2015, with eighty-one percent (81%) saying light crude oil (WTI) will end 2015 above current levels, and nearly half (47%) expecting a final price of $80 per barrel or more.

More than two-thirds (67%) expect the rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to climb, finishing 2015 at 2.4% or higher, with "2.8% to under 3.0%" (22%) receiving the most votes.

Closer to home, forty-one percent (41%) expect their annual bonus check to be higher in 2015 than what they received in 2014. Just seventeen percent (17%) expect a lower bonus.

"Our respondents are expecting another good year for Wall Street, with continued growth and new highs – for the S&P 500, and in many cases for their own compensation as well."

For more information on the Convergex 2015 Forecasts Survey, click here.

*Convergex's U.S. Market Volatility Survey, July 2014

Person of the Year
For better or worse, who had the greatest impact on global capital markets in 2014?

• Janet Yellen, U.S. Fed Chair – 30.9%
• Vladimir Putin, Russia President – 24.0%
• Michael Lewis/Brad Katsuyama; Flash Boys author/IEX President & CEO – 10.8%
• Jack Ma, Alibaba Founder – 7.8%
• Bill Gross, Janus Capital/PIMCO – 7.4%
• Barack Obama, U.S. President – 6.9%
• Tim Cook, Apple CEO – 3.4%
• Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO – 2.9%
• Mary Jo White, SEC Chair – 2.5%
• Other – 3.4%

Timing is Everything
At which Federal Reserve Board meeting will the FOMC announce its first rate increase?

• January, March, April or June – 54%
• July, September, October or December – 28%
• No rate increase – 17%

Many Happy Returns…
How much will the S&P 500 Index return in 2015?

• Up 8% or more – 32.2%
• Up 4% to less than 8% – 34.6%
• Up less than 4% – 16.5%
• Flat – .5%
• Down – 16%

…Including Volatility
Will U.S. equity markets be more or less volatile in 2015 than 2014?

• Much more volatile – 13%
• More volatile – 64%
• Same – 16%
• Less volatile – 8%

Rising Rates
What will the rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note be at the end of 2015?

• 3.0% or more – 27%
• 2.0% to less than 3.0% – 68%
• Less than 2.0% – 4%

Black Gold, Texas Tea…
What will the price of Crude Oil (WTI) be per barrel at the end of 2015?

• $100 or more – 8%
• $80 to less than $100 – 39%
• $60 to less than $80 – 42%
• Less than $60 – 10%

More Than a Pat on the Back
Thinking about your personal compensation, are you expecting the annual bonus check you receive in 2015 to be higher or lower than what you received in 2014? (of respondents receiving a bonus)

• Much higher – 5%
• Higher – 36%
• Same – 41%
• Lower – 12%
• Much lower – 5%

Methodology
The Convergex 2015 Forecasts Survey featuring 'Wall Street's Person of the Year' was performed by Convergex via an online survey of financial industry participants, resulting in 206 respondents. The survey was conducted from December 9, 2014 to December 12, 2014, and has a margin of error of +/-10%. Respondents included buy-side firms (asset managers, hedge funds), sell-side firms (banks, broker-dealers), trading venues, service providers and other financial industry participants. Rounding of decimal results may produce totals over or under 100% (by 1%).

About Convergex
Convergex is an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider that takes on the industry's toughest challenges, from complicated trades to complex businesses.  With clients' interests as the top priority, Convergex delivers comprehensive solutions that span global high-touch and electronic trading, options technologies, prime brokerage, clearing, commission management and beyond. Headquartered in New York with a presence in several other locations including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Orlando, San Francisco and London, the company serves nearly 3,000 clients accessing over 100 global market centers. Convergex provides brokerage services primarily on an agency basis, but may operate in a riskless principal and/or net trading capacity, and in connection with certain ETF or ADR transactions, may act as principal or engage in hedging strategies with such transactions. Convergex does not engage in market making or investment banking activities, other than as a selling group member.

In the U.S., Convergex offers products and services through Convergex Execution Solutions LLC (member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC); G-Trade Services LLC (member FINRA/SIPC); Westminster Research Associates LLC (member FINRA/SIPC); Convergex Depositary, Inc., and Convergex Solutions LLC, of which Connex, Jaywalk and LDB are divisions.

In London, Convergex operates through Convergex Limited, which is incorporated in England and Wales (registered with company number 06262150). Convergex Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of the United Kingdom.

The material, data and information (collectively "Convergex Information") that is available from Convergex is intended for institutional investor use only; is for informational purposes only; is subject to change at any time; is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice; and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Convergex Information is believed to be reliable, but Convergex does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Clients should read their agreement with Convergex carefully as it contains important information and disclosures about the product or service covered by it. (Rev. 12/2/14)

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SOURCE Convergex